Knowing how you will feel in the future should be straight forward enough shouldn’t it? Having lived for 23 years I should have a pretty good idea about what I do and don’t like and what will and what won’t make me happy. But we don’t always. Far too often we regret choices and get our thoughts about the future terribly wrong. How enjoyable a house party will be, how sick I will feel halfway through a massive dessert I ordered and how unbearable work will be after 4 hours sleep are classic examples. In hindsight you can see that there were a number of reasons why the house party was going to be rubbish and that you shouldn’t have bothered going and therefore shouldn’t be sat moaning about it. But you went and are now moaning. So through the knowledge shared in this blog let us try and do something to prevent it ever happening again (or perhaps more realistically: not as often).A study by Jepson et al (2001) using a group of patients on the kidney transplant waiting list underlines our failings in affective forecasting (knowing how we will feel in the future). Patients were asked to predict their quality of life one year later if they a) did not receive the transplant they were understandably desperate for and b) if they did get the transplant. A year later some had received transplants and others had not been as lucky and researchers returned and both groups were asked to report their current quality of life. Those that had received a transplant originally over-predicted their quality of life and weren't as happy as they thought they would be. Conversely, those who didn’t get a transplant under predicted their quality of life. They were in fact a lot happier than they had thought they would be. Although it is fairly unlikely that you will ever need a kidney transplant, important lessons can be learnt. First of all, as human beings we are incredibly resilient. We can adapt. Even if some patients didn’t receive the kidney transplant they were desperate for, they still enjoyed life to a far greater extent than they originally imagined. We have all had problems and tribulations that were serious (may not be as major as needing a new organ) but nevertheless we have overcome them and often unexpectedly quickly. The loss of a spouse or parent is heartbreaking and we may think we will never be as happy as we were before, but chances are we will recover and enjoy life once again.
The second important lesson is that when thinking about the future we often 'focalise' or focus too much on 'stand out stuff' and ignore the many other slightly less glamorous but important parts that make up our day to day experiences. The thought of a new kidney or huge lottery win is just often too big and ‘stand out’ for us to think about all the other stuff we will face in the future. For example, getting a new kidney may well be amazing at first but with or without a new kidney the day to day hassles and relationship problems that make our lives less than perfect still remain. Conversely, not receiving that kidney will be a blow and may make you feel down a lot of the time, but birds still sing, food still tastes good and popcorn and scary films still go hand in hand nicely. Changes in circumstance probably will have some impact on some aspects of our life, but one should think carefully what they will and won’t change.
As well as occasionally focalising about the future we can also be strongly influenced by our present state and feelings. Sometimes our present frame of mind determines how we think we will feel in the future even if how we feel in the present has little or no relevance to the future. Hunger is a fine example and research by Read & van Leeuwen (1998) supports the age old piece of wisdom that shopping on an empty stomach is generally a bad idea. Researchers approached office workers and asked them to make a choice between an unhealthy (and filling) or healthy (yet less filling) snack that they would receive a week later after a lunch time meal. Hungrier participants opted for the unhealthier choice significantly more than their satiated counterparts. Even though both groups would have been equally full up a week later the hungry groups present feelings of hunger couldn’t help but influence their feelings about the future.
If you’ve seen a friend getting back with a boyfriend almost immediately after breaking up you may have seen another example of how present feelings distort thoughts about the future. Too often people will break up for a very good reason (i.e. they are less compatible than dieting and fast food) but the inevitable feelings of loneliness that come with the end of any relationship may cause one to change their mind, as based on their current feelings they can’t imagine ever feeling normal again. Resulting in them both getting back on a rickety wagon that wasn’t and still isn’t right for either passenger. Present state drives thoughts about the future and it can be all too easy to forget how different the world will look with time. It could be ordering a ridiculous amount of food that you will never be able to finish when peckish or tricking oneself into thinking our ex-partners make us happy when we are lonely. Thus, it can be all too easy to be trapped in the present when thinking about the future. You have been warned……..
Related Thoughts
Thinking about the future is tricky, especially when we have strong feelings and cravings in the present.
Please bear in mind an extra kidney or lottery win aren’t definite keys to happiness (although I would definitely take the latter and maybe even the former, as one can never be too careful).
Shock horror: shopping on an empty stomach is a bad idea.
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